Quaderni di Dipartimento

 
ELENCO DEI QUADERNI DI DIPARTIMENTO - WORKING PAPERS
 

2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
2001 2000 1999 e prec.                      
 
ISSN: 2279-9559 (dal n. 1 al n. 157), 2279-9567 (dal n. 158 al n. 363), 2279-9575 (dal n. 364 in poi)

  • Paper nr. 421
Title: Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models
Authors: Francesco Bartolucci, Claudia Pigini
Abstract:
Strict exogeneity of covariates other than the lagged dependent variable, and conditional on unobserved heterogeneity, is often required for consistent estimation of binary panel data models.This assumption is likely to be violated in practice because of feedback eects from the past of the outcome variable on the present value of covariates and no general solution is yet available. In this paper, we provide the conditions for a logit model formulation that takes into account feedback eects without specifying a joint parametric model for the outcome and predetermined explanatory variables. Our formulation is based on the equivalence between Granger's denition of noncausality and a modication of the Sims' strict exogeneity assumption for nonlinear panel data models, introduced by Chamberlain (1982) and for which we provide a more general theorem.
We further propose estimating the model parameters with a recent xed-eects approach based on pseudo conditional inference, adapted to the present case, thereby taking care of the correlation between individual permanent unobserved heterogeneity and the model's covariates as well. Our results hold for short panels with a large number of cross-section units, a case of great interest in microeconomic applications.
JEL Codes: C12, C23, C25
Keywords; binary panel data, fixed eects, feedback eects, pseudo-conditional inference
 
 
  • Paper nr. 420
Title: Over education and the great recession. The case of italian PH.D graduates.
Authors: Barbara Ermini, Luca Papi, Francesca Scaturro
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the impact of the Great Recession on Ph.D over-education using data drawn from four annual cohorts of Ph.D graduates surveyed by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. Over-education is examined through the definitions of both over-skilling and over-qualification.The results show that over-skilling is positively associated with the Great Recession, whereas the relationship between the crisis and over-qualification is statistically significant only when the estimated model includes interaction terms for the crisis and jobs within academia or R&D-related sectors. More generally, working on research-based activities and study experience abroad are always significant drivers to overcome any kind of job mismatch. Conversely, being self-employed increases the risk of over-education, casting some doubts on the satisfactory additionality of Ph.D employment trajectories beyond academia and research. Finally, in contrast with previous results for graduates, we find that socio-demographic variables do not exert a significant influence on Ph.D over-education..
JEL Codes: C2, I2, J24
Keywords; Over-education, Over-skilling, Over-qualification, Ph.D graduates, Great Recession