Quaderni di Dipartimento [serie speciale]

[ S e r i e   S p e c i a l e ]
Carlofilippo FRATESCHI
Trasformazione sistemica, ingresso nell'UE e sviluppo regionale nei paesi dell'Europa Centro-orientale [luglio 2006]
  In this paper I consider the economic and social evolution of the PECO countries at the regional level. Growing integration in the EU market, and the general economic and financial globalization are the main external conditioning processes of that evolution. Local economies, characterized by different economic, social and geographic initial conditions, reacted in differentiated ways. The paper highlights four typical paths of evolution, common to all the ex-socialist East-European countries.
Gabriele ORCALLI, Gianluca TOSCHI
Commercio e migrazioni. UE, Tunisia e Marocco [luglio 2006]
  Il paper discute il legame fra integrazione regionale nel Mediterraneo e flussi migratori. Con gli Accordi Mediterranei, l'UE si proponeva, favorendo la stabilità e la crescita dell'area attraverso gli scambi commerciali, di ridurre gli incentivi per l'immigrazione. I dati disponibili ad oggi non sembrano, tuttavia, confermare questa tendenza: in realtà, negli anni considerati, ad un significativo aumento delle esportazioni dalla Tunisia e dal Marocco si accompagna anche una crescita delle emigrazioni. La nostra verifica empirica segnala una forte difficoltà a spiegare le cause di questo fenomeno. Mentre appare chiara la correlazione fra commercio, occupazione e salari nei settori esportatori, non è possibile spiegare la relazione fra commercio ed emigrazione, né nell'ipotesi di sostituibilità fra le due variabili né in quella di complementarietà.
Antonio GOLINI, Valeria DE ANGELIS, Cristiano MARINI, Paola VITTORI
Dinamica demografica della Libia e di alcuni paesi dell'area euro-mediterranea e possibili riflessi sulle relazioni internazionali [luglio 2006]
  Population of Libya is expected to complete, in a short time, its first demographic transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality. This process is favoured by a high level of education, also among women, and high degree of urbanisation. Future behaviours of couples will largely affect its future demographic path. If between 2005 and 2050 the average number of children per woman should pass from the current 3.0 to 2.4, then the Libyan population will increase from 5.8 to 11.1 mil-lions; if the number of children should decrease up to 1.4, then Libyan population will reach, in 2050, 7.6 millions. In any case in 2050 population of Libya should be much smaller than that of: i) Algeria, with an expected population of 48.7 millions; ii) Egypt, with 127.4 millions; iii) Ethiopia, with 171.0 millions. Libya will remain at the centre of an enormous population pressure, therefore continuing to be country of destination and transit of massive migration flows.
Antonio GOLINI, Cristiano MARINI
Aspetti nazionali ed internazionali delle popolazioni considerate da una "finestra demografica" [luglio 2006]
  A first aim of this paper is to examine the demographic machinery of the first and second demographic transition and to try to evaluate when and how long a "demographic window" - recognized trough the "dependency ratio" - is opened in a population. A second aim is an attempt to evaluate the possible impact of spatial differences in timing and length of demographic windows on relations, both economic and migratory ones, among countries. In brief, we want to give "a domestic and an international view on population from a demographic window". In order to evaluate the whole process and possible costs and benefits of the first and second demographic transition, we preferred to make reference to actual populations rather than to theoretical ones, in particular to four countries placed along the road from the beginning of the first demographic transition to the heart of the second one: Nigeria, Egypt, China, and Italy.
Quali fonti per la misurazione dell'immigrazione marocchina in Italia: Confronto tra paese di origine e paese di accoglienza [luglio 2006]
  Although in the last few years literature on international Moroccan migration had become quite relevant, investigations on the topic are limited and lack of scientific analysis based on wide empirical investigation.
The analysis of migration has often been hamper by several deficiencies in the statistic system caused by structural factors and by administrative and material constraints that had been promoted to justify limits of potential sources. Nevertheless, there have always been not fully utilized alternatives and itÆs time to revaluate them.
Furthermore it should be noticed that there are several incoherencies concerning concepts adopted by different receiving countries. Data sources differ a lot from country to country and, sometimes, figures appear incompatible even within the same country ;In Italy the estimation of phenomena is greatly linked to different methods applied for data collection and exploitation. However the existence of several sources and their comparison at a national level, endorse the evaluation of the evolution of Moroccan immigrations to Italy and moreover to face