Quaderni di Dipartimento [serie ordinaria - Anno 2019]

ELENCO DEI QUADERNI DI DIPARTIMENTO - WORKING PAPERS

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ISSN: 2279-9559 (dal n. 1 al n. 157), 2279-9567 (dal n. 158 al n. 363), 2279-9575 (dal n. 364 in poi)

  • Paper nr. 438
Title:   Fiscal rules and budget forecast errors of Italian Municipalities
Authors:  Matteo Picchio, Raffaella Santolini
Abstract: 
We study the impact of the domestic stability pact on the budget forecast errors of Italian municipalities. The identification of the causal effect exploits a quasi-natural experiment generated by the removal in 2001 of the fiscal restraints on budget decisions for municipalities with less than 5,000 inhabitants and by stricter budgetary restrictions and severe penalties for noncompliers in 2002. We find that relaxing fiscal rules had a sizeable impact on budget forecast errors, especially in 2002. Revenue (expenditure) forecast errors for municipalities below 5,000 inhabitants became indeed 26% (22%) larger than in the past.
JEL Codes:  E62, H68, H72
Keywords: budget forecast errors, sub-central fiscal rules, Italian municipalities, quasi-natural experiment, differencein-discontinuities design.
 
  • Paper nr. 437
Title:  Phillips' averaging procedure as a 'crude' version of the Haar wavelet filter
Authors:  Marco Gallegati, James B. Ramsey
Abstract: 
The aim of this study is to investigate the exact nature of Phillips' (1958) findings. We show that the application of the simplest type of wavelet basis function developed by Haar in 1910 allows to replicate the output of Phillips' data transformation procedure,
i.e. the six mean coordinates. Specifically, the resemblance between the coarsest scale level coefficients from the Haar wavelet filter and the six crosses suggests the long-term nature of Phillips' (wage-unemployment) relationship. The application of the Haar wavelet filter allows us to examine the effects of two main features of Phillips' 'unorthodox' averaging procedure: the arbitrarily choice of variable-width intervals and the choice of sorting observations in ascending order of unemployment rate values. Our results show that the arbitrary selection of intervals affects only the smoothness (regularity) of the nonlinear pattern of the wage-unemployment relationship, but not its shape which is determined by sorting and grouping unemployment rate values in ascending order. Indeed, when observations are ordered according to a chronological sequence a simple linear relationship is evident. These findings are robust to different samples, 1861-1913 and 1861-1958.
JEL Codes:  B22, C63, E24
Keywords: Phillips curve, Haar wavelet transform, Moving average filter
 
  • Paper nr. 436
Title:  Timed to say goodbye: Does unemployment benefit eligibility affect worker layoffs?
Authors:  Andrea Albanese, Corinna Ghirelli, Matteo Picchio
Abstract: 
We study how unemployment benefit eligibility affects the layoff exit rate by exploiting quasiexperimental variation in eligibility rules in Italy. By using a difference-in-differences estimator, we find an instantaneous increase of about 12% in the layoff probability when unemployment benefit eligibility is attained, which persists for about 16 weeks. These findings are robust to different identifying assumptions and are mostly driven by jobs started after the onset of the Great Recession, in the South and for small firms. We argue that the moral hazard from the employer's side is the main force driving these layoffs.
JEL Codes:  O31, O35, Q55
Keywords: responsible innovation, occupational health and safety; environment protection
 
  • Paper nr. 435
Title: Sources and determinants of responsible innovations: occupational health and safety in italian firms
Authors: Marialuisa Divella, Alessandro Sterlacchini
Abstract: 
This paper provides a micro-econometric analysis of the factors facilitating the introduction of responsible innovations by firms, with a focus on those aimed at improving occupational health and safety. These innovations have been rarely investigated with quantitative methods, especially if compared to those aimed at protecting the environment. Accordingly, we also assess whether firms pursuing health and safety innovations are also those ascribing high importance to the reduction of environmental impacts. The evidence provided by using firm-level data taken from the Italian Community Innovation Surveys highlights the key role played by some external sources of knowledge and internal human resource practices for the achievement of responsible innovations. Many similarities but also important differences between firms emerge, according to whether they are committed to health and safety or environmental innovation.
JEL Codes:  O31, O35, Q55
Keywords: responsible innovation, occupational health and safety; environment protection

 

  • Paper nr. 434
Title: Macro and Micro Prudential Policies: Sweet and Lowdown in a Credit Network Agent Based Model
Authors: Ermanno Catullo, Federico Giri, Mauro Gallegati
Abstract: 
The paper presents an agent based model reproducing a stylized credit network that evolves endogenously through the individual choices of rms and banks. We introduce in this framework a anancial stability authority in order to test the e ects of different prudential policy measures designed to improve the resilience of the economic system. Simulations show that a combination of micro and macro prudential policies reduces systemic risk, but at the cost of increasing banks' capital volatility.
Moreover, agent based methodology allows us to implement an alternative meso regulatory framework that takes into consideration the connections between firms and banks. This policy targets only the more connected banks, increasing their capital requirement in order to reduce the di usion of local shocks. Our results support the idea that the meso prudential policy is able to reduce systemic risk without a ecting the stability of banks'capital structure.
JEL Codes:  E50; E58; G18; G28; C63
Keywords: Micro prudential policy; Macro prudential policy; Credit Network; Meso prudential policy; Agent based model

 

  • Paper nr. 433
Title: Health spending in Italy: the impact of immigrants
Authors: Giulia Bettin, Agnese Sacchi
Abstract: 
The welfare impact of immigration is a hot topic especially for countries at the external borders of the European Union. This paper studies how immigrants affect public health expenditure across Italian regions during the period 2003-2015. Identification strategy is based on shift{share instruments, which are also robust to pull factors that might attract immigrants in Italy and to internal migration of natives. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in immigrants over total population leads to a decrease in public health expenditure per capita by about 3.9% (i.e. around 70 euro per capita). This evidence is confirmed when focusing on needy immigrants from low income countries with less developed welfare systems. Among possible channels, we find no
support for any crowding out effects from public to private health services by natives due to increasing immigration neither for the effect of entry barriers limiting the immigrants' reliance on public healthcare. Our results are driven by immigrants' demographic structure: foreigners are mostly males and younger workers that call for less health spending, according to a positive selection mechanism.
JEL Codes: F22, H51, H41, I10, J61
Keywords: immigration, public health expenditure, demographic structure, positive selection