Quaderni di Dipartimento


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ISSN: 2279-9559 (dal n. 1 al n. 157), 2279-9567 (dal n. 158 al n. 363), 2279-9575 (dal n. 364 in poi)

  • Paper nr. 426
Title: Dynamic panel probit: finite-sample performance of alternative random-effects estimators
Authors: Riccardo Lucchetti, Claudia Pigini
Estimation of random-effects dynamic probit models for panel data entails the so-called "initial conditions problem". We argue that the relative finitesample performance of the two main competing solutions is driven by the magnitude of the individual unobserved heterogeneity and/or of the state dependence in the data. We investigate our conjecture by means of a comprehensive Monte Carlo experiment and offer useful indications for the practitioner.
JEL Codes: C23, C25
Keywords: Dynamic panel probit; panel data; Monte Carlo study
  • Paper nr. 425
Title: If not now, when? The timing of childbirth and labour market outcomes
Authors: Matteo Picchio, Claudia Pigini, Stefano Staffolani, Alina Verashchagina
We study the effect of childbirth and its timing on female labour market outcomes in italy. The impact on yearly labour earnings and participation is traced up to 21 years since school completion by estimating a factor analytic model with dynamic selection into treatments. We find that childbearing, especially the first delivery, negatively affects female labour supply. Women having their first child soon after school completion are able to catch up with childless women only after 12-15 years. The timing matters, with minimal negative consequences observed if the first child is delayed up to 7-9 years after exiting formal education
JEL Codes: C33, C35, J13, J22
Keywords: Female labour supply; fertility; discrete choice models; dynamic treatment effect; facto